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Analysis & trends
Publication of the Multiannual Energy Plan: unsure scope of a long-awaited text
Published in the Official Journal on 13 February 2026, Decree No. 2026-76, dated 12 February 2026, establishes the Multiannual Energy Plan (PPE 3) for the period from 2026 to 2035[1]. This long-awaited publication follows several years of uncertainty in the energy sector, particularly regarding public support mechanisms and investment predictability.
1. Uncertain Scope of PPE 3 for Future Projects
In accordance with the Energy Code, the PPE outlines the state’s energy-related actions over two successive five-year periods. It establishes energy production targets and defines the mobilization of state resources, considering the growing electrification of consumption[2]. Notably, it addresses security of supply by considering energy consumption scenarios, the development of renewable and recovered energy sources, and the reduction of primary energy consumption[3].
The delay of more than three years in publishing PPE 3 created significant uncertainty about the future of the renewable energy sector. Indeed, support measures, such as feed-in tariff schemes and contracts for difference, are implemented based on the objectives set forth in PPE 3.
Despite the publication of PPE 3, the legal scope of the text and its effects on investment in the sector remain doubly uncertain.
First, the budgetary context is expected to lead to a gradual reduction in the level of support mechanisms, which are to be halved by 2040 and become residual by 2055 [4]. It is in this context that the Prime Minister entrusted Jean-Bernard Lévy and Thierry Tuot with a mission to optimize public support mechanisms for renewable energy, with a view to “proposing a support model that is more efficient, more sustainable, and better shared between public and private actors.”[5]. At the same time, the Commission de régulation de l’énergie also emphasised the growing role of long-term corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs) in structuring renewable electricity generation projects and reducing their economic risk[6].
Furthermore, the PPE 3 decree contains a review clause in its Article 2, providing that the volumes of public support to be allocated until 31 December 2028 for onshore wind and solar power may not exceed the levels set by PPE 2[7], and that a simplified revision may be implemented as early as 2027 in order to take into account, from 1 January 2029, “changes in electricity consumption, the development of decarbonised electricity generation capacity and the deployment of decarbonised flexibility solutions.”
2. Sectoral overview of the Energy Trajectory
a) Revival of nuclear power
While PPE 2 had set out a trajectory for the closure of nuclear power plants, PPE 3 relaunches the sector by allowing the 57 reactors in the existing nuclear fleet to continue operating. These objectives reflect a strategy aimed at optimizing the current fleet, targeting a production range of 380 to 420 TWh by 2030–2035[8]. At the same time, PPE 3 provides for the construction of six EPR2 reactors, with the first commissioning scheduled for 2038[9]. The financing of these new EPR2 reactors is planned to be based on a subsidized state loans and a contract for difference capped at €100/MWh. These financing plans could fall under the state aid regime, which would necessitate an evaluation of their compatibility with European Union law[10].
b) Towards a slowdown in the development of photovoltaic projects despite the acceleration of regulatory obligations
A target of 48 GW of installed photovoltaic capacity is set for 2030, down from the 54 GW initially envisaged under PPE 2, followed by a range of 55 to 80 GW for 2035[11]. The reduction of these targets raises questions considering the building and parking lot solarisation obligations laid down by the APER law, as it may limit opportunities to benefit from support measures[12].
If the volumes of public support allocated may not exceed those provided for under the PPE 2[13]. They may be revised at the end of 2027 for the period starting in 2029 to account for upcoming changes to support mechanisms. The new tender specifications and their timetable for rooftop and ground-mounted projects are expected to be published in the coming days[14]. PPE 3 announces two annual tenders of 1 GW each for ground-mounted plants and three annual tenders of 300 MW each for rooftop photovoltaic installations.
The PPE 3 also emphasizes the development of agrivoltaics and collective self-consumption. However, new reforms seem necessary to encourage this development, particularly to take into account the specifics of these schemes in calls for tenders and to recognize collective self-consumption as a means of reducing energy consumption.
c) Onshore wind: priority given to repowering
PPE 3 sets a target of 35 to 40 gigawatts (GW) of onshore wind by 2035. The projected trajectory hinges on holding two tenders per year, each with a capacity of around 800 MW, beginning in the first half of 2026 [15]. Repowering existing wind farms is “prioritized,” though no specific volume is allocated, raising questions in light of the APER law’s facilitation rationale[16].
After 2028, these tenders will be supplemented by technology-neutral tenders (open to several types of energy) of 500 MW each.
d) Reaffirmed support for offshore wind
The objective is to reach at least 15 GW by 2035. The trajectory also anticipates the allocation of a cumulative power of 26 GW by 2030-2031, primarily through AO 11 and subsequent auctions, following the allocation of AO 9 and 10 planned for this year[17].
These objectives, however, are taking place in a context marked by uncertainty (lack of bids on AO7, renegotiations of tariffs on certain awarded projects, etc.).
e) The challenge of renewing hydropower concessions
Installed capacity is expected to reach 26.3 GW by 2030 and 28.7 GW by 2035, primarily through increased power output from existing installations[18]. This trajectory includes an additional 1,700 MW of pumped storage stations and is part of a context of reforming the renewal of hydroelectric concessions and relaunching investments in the sector[19].
f) Lowering the ambitions for the hydrogen sector
Despite the State’s support for the development of the industry, the goals for hydrogen growth are less ambitious than in the PPE 2: 4.5 GW of installed electrolysis is planned for 2030 and 8 GW for 2035. Furthermore, the PPE 3 places a particular emphasis on decarbonized hydrogen and its use in industry and transportation.
g) Evolution of support for biomethane
Biomethane installations have grown significantly, surpassing the PPE 2 targets. The goal is to inject 44 TWh PCS by 2030, and between 47 and 82 TWh PCS by 2035, according to the PPE 3. To encourage producers to become more competitive and allow large-scale installations to emerge, the PPE 3 emphasizes extra-budgetary support measures such as biomethane production certificates (CPB) and direct sales to consumers via biomethane purchase agreements[20].
h) Absence of targets for electricity storage
Although PPE 3 highlights the importance of battery electricity storage for the sizing and stability of the power system, no specific target is set for the sector. This absence, which had already been criticised in the context of PPE 2, therefore prevents such projects from benefiting from public support measures.
